Will President Donald Trump make it through his first term? | The Tylt
Just two weeks into President Donald Trump's first term, Public Policy Polling found that 40 percent of Americans want him impeached. That's up from 35 percent the week before. Political observers note that 1/3 of Americans wanted Barack Obama impeached in 2014—but that was after Obama had been in office for six years. Online bookies put the odds of Trump being impeached at 2 to 1. But his campaign proved Trump had serious survival skills. Will Trump make it through his first term?
Will President Donald Trump make it through his first term?
Just in terms of logistics, it's really hard to impeach a president—which is why it's only happened twice. Even if Trump commits impeachable offenses, Congress would have to start impeachment proceedings, and political observers highly doubt this Republican Congress would kick Trump out of office. At the New Republic, Jeet Heer says it's not going to happen:
Trump likely won’t be impeached unless the Democrats win both houses of Congress in the 2018 midterms—a near impossibility.
But others find Trump's impeachment likely. The president's erratic behavior in his first week left many political observers saying we may have to invoke the 25th Amendment, which says that "if the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office," the vice president can immediately take over.
Conservative columnist David Brooks says “the guy will probably resign or be impeached within a year.” And professor Allan Lichtman thinks Trump will offer plenty of reasons to be impeached:
I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
Political commentator, professor, and former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich claims to have inside information that Republicans will indeed impeach Trump, as they would prefer to have the more reliable, predictable Mike Pence at the wheel.
How many times did the mainstream media and every pundit in America say Trump was out of the race? Over and over he's disproved conventional wisdom, and done things his own way. Predictions, polls, and precedents are all useful—but as his campaign proved, you can't use the past to predict the future of a Trump presidency.