Who will win Arizona's Senate seat: Kyrsten Sinema or Martha McSally? | The Tylt

Who will win Arizona's Senate seat: Kyrsten Sinema or Martha McSally?

Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema are in a fierce battle for Jeff Flake's Arizona Senate seat. When the two met for their one and only debate, McSally lobbed accusations of treason at Sinema for statements she made years ago. Arizona has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, but the party is confident voters can change that in 2018. With just a few more weeks before the election, who do you think will win Arizona's Senate seat—Kyrsten Sinema or Martha McSally?

FINAL RESULTS
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Who will win Arizona's Senate seat: Kyrsten Sinema or Martha McSally?
A festive crown for the winner
#TeamSinema
#TeamMcSally
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Who will win Arizona's Senate seat: Kyrsten Sinema or Martha McSally?
#TeamSinema
#TeamMcSally
#TeamMcSally

Sinema has faced some pushback on her background, both personal and political. Per Vox

Sinema has made some serious revisions to her public image before getting to this point, however. Once an avid Green Party supporter who backed Ralph Nader, she is now one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, even voting with President Trump a few times on key immigration issues. But her shifting political positions aren’t the only thing facing heightened scrutiny lately.
She has gotten pushback about the portrayal of her upbringing, with questions centering on how she’s characterized a time in her life when she and her family were homeless in Florida.
...“For nearly three years, we lived in an old, abandoned gas station without running water or electricity,” Sinema has said about a period of childhood hardship. Since she’s launched her Senate campaign, however, members of her extended family and a New York Times report have spurred questions about the veracity of her statement and implied that she’s exaggerated aspects of it. Sinema and her immediate family, meanwhile, say that’s not the case.
#TeamSinema

However, in right-leaning Arizona, Sinema's political calculation to move to the center has made her more competitive against hard-right McSally. Per The New York Times:

In her current race, Ms. Sinema holds up Senator Joe Manchin III, a centrist Democrat from West Virginia, as one of her role models; goes to lengths to avoid criticizing Mr. Trump; and is focusing on priorities for veterans and law enforcement. She has featured her Marine-turned-police-officer stepbrother in one ad; another shows machine gun-equipped helicopters, aircraft carriers and images of troops high-fiving. “Security and strength,” the announcer intones, “whatever it takes.”
“What she’s always been is not a centrist or a bold progressive but an opportunist,” said Tomas Robles, an immigration activist who said Ms. Sinema would not meet with his group. “She’s very smart about what the political climate is and where she wants to make her next move.”
#TeamSinema

During the one, and only, debate the pair met up for, McSally accused Sinema of treason. Per The Huffington Post

After nearly an hour of discussion about political issues, Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), who is running to replace retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake, called on her opponent Rep. Kyrsten Sinema’s (D-Ariz.) to apologize for comments she made years ago when she was an antiwar activist.
According to CNN, Sinema discussed a hypothetical situation during a 2003 radio conversation with a libertarian activist on whether she would oppose him joining Taliban fighters. “I don’t care if you want to do that, go ahead,” Sinema, who was active in antiwar groups, told him.
“It’s treason,” McSally said in the debate.
Sinema responded calmly, saying that her opponent had “chosen to run a campaign like the one you’re seeing right now.” But she never addressed the actual charge. Instead, the Democrat lamented that her opponent was engaging in “ridiculous attacks and smearing my campaign.”

After the debate ended, Representative Ruben Gallego, an Arizona Democrat and Iraq war veteran, came to Sinema's support on Twitter.

#TeamMcSally

The conservative Weekly Standard points out the race, like many in the country, is still competitive. That could be a big advantage for McSally.

But the fact that Arizona is clearly competitive is a big positive for Republicans. Right now, Republicans are forcing Democrats to play whack-a-mole – as of Monday morning, Democrats led in Montana, Nevada, Indiana, West Virginia, Florida, Missouri (though that’s basically a toss-up) and Arizona in our forecast. But leading in each of these states doesn’t translate into being favored to win all of them. In fact, SwingSeat thinks the most likely scenario for Election Day is that the Republican get to 51 seats by scoring an upset in at least one of these races (more on how that works in a later piece). And if Republicans score an upset in any of these races, they’re suddenly much more able to endure an upset in a race where they're favored (possibly in Tennessee, Texas or North Dakota) or pad their margin for the 2020 election (when the Senate map will be less favorable for the GOP).
FINAL RESULTS
Politics
Who will win Arizona's Senate seat: Kyrsten Sinema or Martha McSally?
A festive crown for the winner
#TeamSinema
#TeamMcSally