Who will win Missouri's Senate seat: Claire McCaskill or Josh Hawley? | The Tylt

Who will win Missouri's Senate seat: Claire McCaskill or Josh Hawley?

Missouri is the battleground of one of the country's most hotly contested Senate races. A Reuters poll from early October showed incumbent Claire McCaskill and Josh Hawley in a dead heat, with 45 percent of likely Missouri voters voicing support for Hawley and 44 percent leaning toward McCaskill. McCaskill has been in politics for over three decades and is an established lawmaker. Hawley, a conservative who made his bones arguing the Hobby Lobby case before the Supreme Court, is looking to turn purple Missouri deep red. Who do you think will win the seat?

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Who will win Missouri's Senate seat: Claire McCaskill or Josh Hawley?
A festive crown for the winner
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#TeamHawley
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Who will win Missouri's Senate seat: Claire McCaskill or Josh Hawley?
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McCaskill is a political staple in Missouri, having represented the state in the Senate since 2006. Per USA Today

On the stump, the two-term incumbent boasts that she’s sponsored 30 pieces of legislation, including bipartisan bills to regulate the pharmaceutical industry, that President Trump has signed into law. She points out that's she voted with Trump on about 48 percent of legislation on which the president has expressed an opinion.
...McCaskill, 65, has won 22 of 23 elections since she launched her political career with a successful run for the state legislature in 1982. But in a year when 10 Senate Democrats are defending seats in states that Trump won in 2016, she's seen as one of the party's most vulnerable incumbents.
#TeamMcCaskill

As the days wane before the election, McCaskill has begun publicizing a recent report by the Kansas City Star that Hawley coordinated closely with political consultants while serving as Attorney General. Per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Seizing on a report that Attorney General Josh Hawley had political consultants working out of his public office, Sen. Claire McCaskill compared those acts to the lawbreaking that got the previous Republican attorney general sent to prison for two years.
McCaskill told reporters Thursday that “this is a huge, red line that (Hawley) has crossed.” 
...The Star report this week found that the same political consultants that are now running his campaign against McCaskill had assisted him in directing the attorney general’s office when he took over in 2017.
Topics on the agenda at various meetings with consultants Timmy Teepell and Gail Gitcho included official business such as the budget, staffing decisions, and how to roll out major policy initiatives against sex trafficking and opioid abuse.
#TeamHawley

Hawley, who rode his success arguing the Hobby Lobby case in front of the Supreme Court to an Attorney General position, is a relative political novice. The Washington Post described Hawley's speech to supporters in Missouri's boot heel. 

Josh Hawley reminds them that he has litigated against the Waters of the United States rule, by which the federal government torments farmers, treating any occasionally soggy parcel of land as ripe for regulation. While in private practice, he supported Hobby Lobby’s successful appeal to the Supreme Court, arguing that the company’s free exercise of religion was denied by Obamacare’s requirement that employers provide employees with all kinds of contraception, including abortifacient drugs. This keenly interests whoever filled a field alongside Interstate 55 with little white crosses for victims of abortions.
#TeamHawley

Missouri, a state that was once known as a bellwether because "a majority of the state's voters had favored the national winner in every election from 1904 until 2004," has become reliably Republican in the last decade. McCaskill is fighting hard to distance herself from the liberal wing of the Democratic party, but she's still fighting an uphill battle for the state's conservative vote. Per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Obama twice lost Missouri, the last time in 2012 by almost 10 points to Mitt Romney.
President Donald Trump, who has campaigned for McCaskill’s Republican opponent Josh Hawley multiple times in the state, won Missouri by almost 19 points in 2016.
So that simple-math challenge may explain Obama’s omission so far.
To defeat Hawley on Nov. 6, McCaskill must attract tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of Missourians who also voted for Trump. An open endorsement by Obama, who has broken precedent to criticize Trump style and policies, would not help in that crossover effort.
In a way, however, the former president has made a de facto endorsement. The former president raised money for McCaskill in Beverly Hills, Calif., earlier this year, drawing sharp Republican attacks that McCaskill was beholden to the liberal wing of her party.
FINAL RESULTS
Politics
Who will win Missouri's Senate seat: Claire McCaskill or Josh Hawley?
A festive crown for the winner
#TeamMcCaskill
#TeamHawley